Golden Globes 2018: Who Will Win, Who Should Win

Let’s allow Caroline Framke of Vox to kick this off for us, with a succinct reminder about our favorite drunken aunt of an awards show: Globes gonna Globe.

Based on its placement in the run-up to the Oscars, as well as its often entertaining (read: open bar) awards ceremony, the Globes often get treated as a weather vane for what’s to come. It’s easy to understand why: something wins big in the Musical or Comedy category before the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has finished submitting its nominations, and all of a sudden it’s got momentum. It’s already racking up prizes! Winners have given charming, perhaps slightly tipsy speeches! A moderate hit becomes a bigger one! On the flip side, maybe a heralded film in a crowded field gets shut out, and there are whispers of a snub. Thinkpieces are written — Why Are We Ignoring That Movie? Suddenly, voting for one of several great films becomes something of a righteous act. And, of course, there’s a possibility of backlash or boredom. Life comes at you fast, even if you’re a movie star.

With all that, is it any wonder that the Globes feel bigger and more significant each year? What all that buzz and press hides, however, is that this is a mercurial group with a small voting base who are consistent in only one respect: they’re all over the place. That’s how you get previous wins for Gina Rodriguez and Rachel Bloom followed by radio silence, or plenty of love for Call Me by Your Name, though none in the categories of Screenplay or Director. It makes for an interesting list with some unexpected (and often welcome) names — looking at you, SMILF! — but also with loads of seemingly inexplicable snubs. That’s the Globes. That, and loads of alcohol.

So, here we are, and though you likely have a number of complaints about this roster — we sure do — it sure as hell isn’t a boring lineup. What follows are our sometimes disgruntled, sometimes delighted picks for who should win and our totally baseless predictions for who will. Consider them our personal shots in the dark, but I wouldn’t put any money down. After all, Globes gonna Globe. We’ll be watching, drinks in hand, on January 7th.

—Allison Shoemaker
Senior Writer

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Best Animated Feature Film

maxresdefault 1 Golden Globes 2018: Who Will Win, Who Should Win

maxresdefault 1 Golden Globes 2018: Who Will Win, Who Should Win

The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent

What Should Win: Coco
What Will Win: Coco

What a time to be alive, when The Boss Baby can go from a goofy Twitter meme to a Golden Globes nominee in less than a year flat. But yeah, this one goes to the Pixar movie, both because it’s a Pixar movie and because Coco is one of the studio’s best outings in recent years. In a less stacked year for film overall, you’d be hearing a lot more about it as a possible Best Picture nominee. –Dominick Suzanne-Mayer

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Best Foreign Language Film

the square Golden Globes 2018: Who Will Win, Who Should Win

the square Golden Globes 2018: Who Will Win, Who Should Win

A Fantastic Woman
First They Killed My Father
In the Fade
Loveless
The Square

What Should Win: The Square
What Will Win: The Square

This is an exceptionally strong category all around, but our money goes with what’s probably the highest-profile offering on hand that isn’t directed by Angelina Jolie. Not only did The Square take top honors at this year’s Cannes Film Festival, but artists love movies about art, and its fanged take on the vapid, money-driven world of modern art exhibition seems to be right up the Globes’ alley. –Dominick Suzanne-Mayer

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Best Screenplay, Motion Picture

the shape of water sally hawkins Golden Globes 2018: Who Will Win, Who Should Win

the shape of water sally hawkins Golden Globes 2018: Who Will Win, Who Should Win

The Shape of Water
Lady Bird
The Post
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Molly’s Game

Who Should Win: Lady Bird
Who Will Win: The Shape of Water

Before you start tearing your hair out (as we did) over the exclusion of probable Oscar nominees like Call Me by Your Name, Get Out, and The Emoji Movie, take a deep breath and note the omission of either ‘original’ or ‘adapted’ above. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association doesn’t distinguish between the two categories, so this category is always a little odd. Lady Bird’s thoughtful, compassionate coming-of-age story should snatch a win here, but we’re guessing the widespread love for Guillermo Del Toro’s Cold War fish man romance will sweep it to victory here, as well. –Allison Shoemaker

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Best Original Score, Motion Picture

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1035x780 zimmer 1800 1397663777 1021x580 Golden Globes 2018: Who Will Win, Who Should Win

Carter Burwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water
John Williams, The Post
Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread
Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk

Who Should Win: Jonny Greenwood
Who Will Win: Hans Zimmer

Our pick (and the Globes, we think) will go to the two composers doing really radical stuff: we love Zimmer blurring the lines between score and sound design in Dunkirk, but the haunting, unsettling strings and piano of Jonny Greenwood’s work on Phantom Thread gets the pick from us (mostly because we expect some There Will Be Blood shenanigans will happen due to the heavy use of existing classical music in the film). –Clint Worthington

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Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture

thefloridaproject brooklynnprince e1506692705644 Golden Globes 2018: Who Will Win, Who Should Win

thefloridaproject brooklynnprince e1506692705644 Golden Globes 2018: Who Will Win, Who Should Win

Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name
Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World

Who Should Win: Willem Dafoe
Who Will Win: Willem Dafoe

To say the least, it’s a bit unusual to see a nomination for Plummer, given that a) nobody’s really seen All the Money in the World as of this writing, and b) it’s a performance shot under the gun in just a few days’ time. But hey, if his Spacey-supplanting work is good enough for the HFPA, it’ll hopefully be good enough for the rest of us. Anyway, for all of the great performances in this category, the day and probably most of the upcoming awards season will belong to Dafoe’s humane portrayal of a motel owner forced to walk the line between empathizing with his embattled residents and doing his job. –Dominick Suzanne-Mayer

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Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture

 Golden Globes 2018: Who Will Win, Who Should Win

 Golden Globes 2018: Who Will Win, Who Should Win

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Who Should Win: Laurie Metcalf
Who Will Win: Allison Janney

Globes voters will be particularly hard-pressed to pick between fierce, protective mamas in Metcalf and Janney, but the rest of the field is fairly solid. Spencer’s performance is fantastic, but suffers from the rest of the ensemble being just as impeccable, and Chau does fine work in Downsizing, but struggles to overcome the script’s suspect racial politics (and the character’s pidgin English). Personally, we think Metcalf’s work in Lady Bird is revelatory and deserves recognition, but it’s possible that Janney’s brio in the showier film of the two might pull her through. –Clint Worthington

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